A CARTOON in The Punch of last Thursday reflected what must have flitted through the minds of many people about the enormity of the country’s problems the new bead of the state has to grapple with in the months to come. The caricature of a rather overburdened General Abdulsalami Abubakar depicted him sitting at his desk, with hundreds of pages of Nigeria’s well-known problems taking up every space in the office. Loads of such fullscap sheets were identified as denoting “Ogoni,” ‘fuel scarcity,’ ‘sanctions,’ ‘NEPA,’ ‘political detainees’ and ‘June 12.’ The Head of State was shown holding his head, looking utterly confused and, apparently, wondering just which file to tackle first. Phew!
Throughout the last twelve days since the mantle of leadership fell on him following the sudden death of General Sani Abacha, it’s not quite possible to imagine General Abdulsalami having a lot of sleep as he contends with the country’s seeming insoluble, multi-faceted crisis. In his maiden speech last week, he told the nation that he was going to hold a series of consultations “at the highest level” with different interest groups with the view to finding which course the country should take to solve its problems. The fact that he acknowledged this showed there were indeed problems that needed to be urgently tackled. They were there before but, somehow, the last leadership lost the will to touch them.
General Abubakar has since thrown himself into the job. The death of Abacha has been a timely though unfortunate opportunity to rethink the nation’s drift and bring it back on track. He has met twice with leaders of the five political parties, released nine prominent detainees/prisoners, sought accommodation with the international community and extended the olive branch to Nigerian exiles, asking them to come home and partake in the arduous task of nation-building. The head of state is also consulting with other Nigerians, military and civilian, tapping their views on just where we should go from here. All this bespeaks of a government that is ready to listen, learn and respond.
The issues of political detainees and the political transition programme have so far been given the highest priority by the new government. The release of General Obasanjo, Alhaji Dasuki and six others this week has been lauded by a wide spectrum of people at home and abroad. The Secretary to the Government of the Federation, Alhaji Gidado ldris, said more detainees will soon be freed, as the release is planned in stages. This creates the impression that even the most famous of the political detainees, Chief M.K.O. Abiola, may be released. The government’s promise to speed up a genuine national reconciliation is thus gathering momentum.
However, what is certainly bound to give the head of state more headache as he ponders our problems in his files-cluttered office is the transition programme. It means a lot to Nigerians and the world. It is the key that would lead to the solution of most of the problems on the General’s desk, especially NADECO, June 12, sanctions. On this, opinion is as multifarious as there are many commentators. The newspapers are so full of suggestions by various political commentators that it becomes a herculean task for one to try to make sense out of them. Yet on a closer look, the whole jumble of opinions consists of either of two things — you want the transition to be elongated or you don’t. Those who canvass elongation also share the view that the whole transition programme be scrapped outright or, at best, key aspects of it be restructured. They want, for example, the dissolution of the political parties, the National Electoral Commission and the transition agencies.
On the other hand, others want the programme to remain unchanged so that power can be handed over to an elected government on 1 October as scheduled in Abacha’s time table. They fear that tinkering with the programme could mean elongation of military rule. By pledging to continue with the transition began by Abacha as it was, the Abubakar regime has tentatively committed itself to both hold presidential election on August 1 and hand over two months later. The consultations government is having may yet throw up other options, such as acceding to the demands of four of the political parties to push forward the presidential polls and cancel the previous ones. If government scraps the National Assembly election citing the fairness question, then there’s no way that other measures, such as scrapping or restructuring the parties and the transition agencies, should not be considered. For, the parties and the agencies, as well as the NECON, have suffered credibility crises during the Abacha era because of their role in Abacha’s perceived self-succession plans.
You can hardly effectively midwife a credible transition programme without excorcising the very elements that brought about the disrepute in the first place. In the event that a president is elected through “free and fair” means while the National Assembly constituted during the Abacha years remains untouched, that president is bound to suffer so much crisis that it is hard to guarantee his survival.
The question we need to answer is whether it is possible to scrap the transition programme, start anew, and keep the 1 October date. Considering that there are only four months now to go, we would require the rapidity of an electric train to begin afresh and conclude on time. In Britain where elections are held within forty days of the parliament reconvening, there has been a political system dating hundreds of years, complete with credible political parties, transition agencies and all other checks and balances in place.
Now the greatest danger in extending the transition in this country, however, is that there’s always a possibility that it could be extended again and again. The Abacha era sychopants, who have laid low since the 8 June death of the former leader, could reincarnate and resume their dubious campaign. One could only count on the head of state’s precedents, his apolitical nature and unfolding style devoid of histrionics, as a reassuring pointer to his commitment to establish democratic rule through the normal process. He has already begun on a sound footing, in the process attracting the goodwill of majority of Nigerians and foreign observers, including the government’s opponents such as NADECO, the United States and the European Union. His meetings with the ambassadors of Britain, the United States, and France last Thursday have raised the hope that normal relations with these countries could be re established.
This shows that a little extension of the transition programme would be considered reasonable expecially if that is done with the sole aim of reconstructing it and putting some sense into it. The faster General Abdulsalami Abubakar decides on this, the fewer piles of problems he would have crowding the workspace in his office.
* Published in the New Nigerian Weekly today
