General Obasanjo with his wife Stella, shortly after his release from Yola prison, June 1998
THIS week, the reassuring sounds of democracy knocking on our door were once more heard with the launching of two big parties. The New Nigerian reported somewhat exultantly that the events in Abuja and Lagos were reminiscent of the earthshaking conventions of the behemoth parties of the Second Republic. Fine and good, considering that in the last few years, as the political mandarins lay low, we were only treated to small-time new breeds camouflaging as national figures. During the formation of the All People’s Party three days ago in Lagos, Senator Mahmud Waziri almost accurately described the recent years as ones that saw the “painful brutalisation of our political system and democratic principles and culture.”
The knock on the door, which is music to the ear for anyone nostalgic about good old-time politics, was also sounded by the news that Gen. Olusegun Obasanjo may shortly be running for president. The newspapers have speculated that subtle moves are being made to draft the former head of state into the race. They said the Egba-born general has already bought the idea and even begun to hold consultations with opinion leaders nationwide. By first touring the South-west last week, Obasanjo appears to be seeking to appease his powerful home area where he is known to have been unpopular for years after he handed power “to the Northerners” in 1979. His recent travails — a five-year incarceration for allegedly being part of a reported coup plot to overthrow Gen. Abacha — have sharpened his prestige. Since his release by the present administration in June, many people have read motives in some of his post-prison pronouncements; they nudged each other in the rib with a knowing acknowledgement of the man’s possible yearning to rule again. Obasanjo has now become the beautiful bride of Nigerian politics, with party stalwarts expressing willingness to accept him as a candidate. Since his return from a tour of South Africa, Europe and America twelve days ago, the nation has been waiting for him to confirm or deny whether he is only waiting for the right time before throwing off his mask of modesty. Those flying the kite about his candidature have said the retired general is going to contest the election as a consensus candidate. The increasing visibility of the kite on the national horizon might have encouraged him to become bolder in his exploit. Last Sunday when he paid a condolence visit to the family of Major-Gen. Shehu Musa Yar’Adua in Kaduna, he vowed to keep up the struggle of his erstwhile deputy who died in prison last December 8. “The death of my good friend,” he soothed the downcast family, “should not be a source of grief to you as I am determined to continue with the philosophy, vision and mission that he pursued while alive. I will continue to pursue the goals Gen. Yar’Adua was identified with.”
Those goals are well-known: the establishment of a democratic system in the country and exclusion of the military from politics. Was Obasanjo making a declaration about his alleged candidature? Suppose he was. Whereas Yar’Adua had used the political turf for his mission, Obasanjo has reiterated to the Tafida’s grieving family — and the world — that he harboured no political ambition for now. Even while in the U.S. a fortnight ago, the former head of state said, as he had done so several times before, that he prepares chicken farming at his Ota farm to politics. Indeed, in 1993 he cheekily asked what former head of state Gen. Gowon “forgot in the State House that he wanted to go back for” when the latter announced a presidential ambition.
Obasanjo may not be asked what he had forgotten in that mansion that he should want to return for, but the truth is that Yar’Adua’s shoes in the political battlefield have proven too big for many a politician’s feet. The Katsina-born general was the greatest political bricklayer Nigeria produced in recent times; the tragedy of his death is that there has scarcely been anyone with enough acumen to match him. Considering his towering stature, Obasanjo’s feet may well fit in in Yar’Adua’s shoes snugly. Still, Obasanjo would certainly require bigger toes to successfully operate the awesome political machinery erected by his late subordinate. His getting a countrywide support can almost be guaranteed. At 62, he has enough strength — and credibility — to try his luck in the ring. The problem is: the shark-infested waters of Nigerian politics are a place where one could easily lose both strength and credibility. Knowing the general’s concern with personal image (he has written about it before), it isn’t certain that he is ready to risk both.
But if he is, then he is welcome. And warmly, too.
* Published in my column, Melting Pot, in the New Nigerian Weekly, today
